Prediction market platform Polymarket is planning a long-term push into Japan, targeting full regulatory approval to operate in the country by 2030. The move comes as the company faces rising global competition and tighter scrutiny of prediction markets in several jurisdictions.
Punti chiave
- Polymarket aims to secure regulatory approval in Japan by 2030.
- Japan’s gambling laws currently prevent local users from accessing the platform legally.
- The company sees Japan’s large crypto user base and retail trading culture as a major growth opportunity.
- Competition from rival prediction market platform Kalshi and falling trading volumes are increasing pressure on Polymarket globally.
Polymarket Targets Japanese Market
According to multiple reports, Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin, former Head of Japan at Jupiter, to lead its efforts in the country and coordinate lobbying activities with regulators and policymakers.
The company reportedly views Japan as an underdeveloped but potentially valuable market for trading di previsione platforms. Japan has a population of about 124 million people and an estimated 12 million registered crypto accounts, making it one of Asia’s largest digital asset markets.
Nonostante l'interesse, agli utenti giapponesi è stato impedito l'accesso a Polymarket per anni a causa di restrizioni normative locali.
Strict Gambling Laws Remain a Major Barrier
Japan maintains some of the strictest gambling regulations in the world. Under current laws, betting is only permitted for government-approved activities such as horse racing, lotteries, and certain public sports events.
Article 185 of Japan’s Penal Code prohibits unauthorized gambling activities, with repeat offenders potentially facing prison sentences of up to three years. Operating an illegal gambling business can carry even harsher penalties.
In Giappone, lo status giuridico dei mercati di previsione rimane poco chiaro, creando incertezza per piattaforme come Polymarket che consentono agli utenti di scommettere su risultati reali.
Secondo quanto riportato, un portavoce di Polymarket ha affermato che l'azienda ha riscontrato un "significativo interesse organico" da parte degli utenti in Giappone e in tutta l'Asia, aggiungendo che sta valutando modalità conformi alle normative per espandersi a livello globale.
Growing Community Despite Restrictions
Although Japan is currently listed among Polymarket’s restricted jurisdictions, the platform has already built a sizable online community in the country.
Il suo account X, focalizzato sul Giappone, avrebbe più di 53,000 follower, a testimonianza del crescente interesse locale per i mercati di previsione, nonostante le limitazioni di accesso.
Alcune segnalazioni indicano inoltre che alcuni utenti in regioni soggette a restrizioni continuano ad accedere alle piattaforme di mercato predittivo tramite servizi VPN, sebbene tale attività possa violare le politiche della piattaforma o le leggi locali.
Competition and Regulatory Pressure Intensify
Polymarket’s expansion plans come at a time when prediction market platforms are facing increasing regulatory attention worldwide.
Recentemente, diversi Paesi, tra cui l'India, hanno adottato misure per limitare o rivedere l'accesso a tali piattaforme, mentre le autorità di regolamentazione di altre regioni continuano a valutare se i mercati delle previsioni debbano essere soggetti alle normative sul gioco d'azzardo o sul trading finanziario.
Al contempo, la concorrenza all'interno del settore è in aumento. Dati dal terminale token showed that Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume declined in April, while rival platform Kalshi recorded growth during the same period.
Questo cambiamento suggerisce che la concorrenza per le quote di mercato nel settore delle previsioni si sta intensificando, poiché le piattaforme cercano di espandersi in nuove regioni.
Considerazioni finali
Polymarket’s interest in Japan reflects the growing global demand for prediction market platforms and the broader expansion of crypto-based financial products into Asia. However, Japan’s strict gambling regulations and unclear legal classification for prediction markets mean the company faces a difficult and potentially lengthy approval process.
If Polymarket succeeds, Japan could become one of its most important international markets due to the country’s strong retail trading culture and active crypto user base. Until then, the company will likely need to balance expansion ambitions with increasing regulatory scrutiny and rising competition from rivals such as Kalshi.
