Prediction market platform Polymarket is planning a long-term push into Japan, targeting full regulatory approval to operate in the country by 2030. The move comes as the company faces rising global competition and tighter scrutiny of prediction markets in several jurisdictions.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket aims to secure regulatory approval in Japan by 2030.
- Japan’s gambling laws currently prevent local users from accessing the platform legally.
- The company sees Japan’s large crypto user base and retail trading culture as a major growth opportunity.
- Competition from rival prediction market platform Kalshi and falling trading volumes are increasing pressure on Polymarket globally.
Polymarket Targets Japanese Market
According to multiple reports, Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin, former Head of Japan at Jupiter, to lead its efforts in the country and coordinate lobbying activities with regulators and policymakers.
The company reportedly views Japan as an underdeveloped but potentially valuable market for prediction trading platforms. Japan has a population of about 124 million people and an estimated 12 million registered crypto accounts, making it one of Asia’s largest digital asset markets.
Despite the interest, Japanese users have been blocked from accessing Polymarket for years because of local regulatory restrictions.
Strict Gambling Laws Remain a Major Barrier
Japan maintains some of the strictest gambling regulations in the world. Under current laws, betting is only permitted for government-approved activities such as horse racing, lotteries, and certain public sports events.
Article 185 of Japan’s Penal Code prohibits unauthorized gambling activities, with repeat offenders potentially facing prison sentences of up to three years. Operating an illegal gambling business can carry even harsher penalties.
The legal status of prediction markets remains unclear in Japan, creating uncertainty for platforms like Polymarket that allow users to wager on real-world outcomes.
A spokesperson for Polymarket reportedly said the company has seen “meaningful organic interest” from users in Japan and across Asia, adding that it is exploring compliant ways to expand globally.
Growing Community Despite Restrictions
Although Japan is currently listed among Polymarket’s restricted jurisdictions, the platform has already built a sizable online community in the country.
Its Japan-focused X account reportedly has more than 53,000 followers, highlighting growing local interest in prediction markets despite access limitations.
Reports have also suggested that some users in restricted regions continue to access prediction market platforms through VPN services, although such activity may violate platform policies or local laws.
Competition and Regulatory Pressure Intensify
Polymarket’s expansion plans come at a time when prediction market platforms are facing increasing regulatory attention worldwide.
Countries including India have recently moved to restrict or review access to such platforms, while regulators in other regions continue to examine whether prediction markets should fall under gambling or financial trading rules.
At the same time, competition within the sector is increasing. Data from Token Terminal showed that Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume declined in April, while rival platform Kalshi recorded growth during the same period.
The shift suggests that competition for market share in the prediction market industry is becoming more intense as platforms seek expansion into new regions.
Final Thoughts
Polymarket’s interest in Japan reflects the growing global demand for prediction market platforms and the broader expansion of crypto-based financial products into Asia. However, Japan’s strict gambling regulations and unclear legal classification for prediction markets mean the company faces a difficult and potentially lengthy approval process.
If Polymarket succeeds, Japan could become one of its most important international markets due to the country’s strong retail trading culture and active crypto user base. Until then, the company will likely need to balance expansion ambitions with increasing regulatory scrutiny and rising competition from rivals such as Kalshi.
